In Depth:  Peter Brierley

Future trends

It is too early as yet to know the impact of the Covid-19 restrictions on church attendance in England.

Many expect it to drop because ‘live-streaming’ has become very popular, and it is much easier to watch on a screen in the comfort of one’s home than travelling to a church on a Sunday. On the other hand, others feel numbers may increase because many more folk have been watching on YouTube or whatever and may feel they want to join in. The issue for church leaders may well be how to accommodate both of these eventualities.

Future trends

Most analyses about church attendance focus on denomination, churchmanship or people’s age. But looking at the environment (catchment area) can also be of significance. 

This is helped by the comprehensive March 2021 Government’s Statistical Digest of Rural England, comparing the English rural and urban populations. Those living in rural towns, villages and hamlets are one-sixth, 16%, of the total population, while those living in urban areas (major and minor conurbations, cities and towns) are 83%, the remaining 1% living in what are called ‘sparse settings,’ mostly remote rural areas. 

Future trends

What will the church look like when the Covid-19 lockdown has finally finished? Will church buildings be empty, given the popularity of YouTube services? An impossible question, as almost all the needed information is unknown! What are some of the issues?

Streamed services prove popular. YouTube, Zoom, Skype, etc. services have been popular. Will churchgoing people continue to prefer to watch these or attend ‘real’ services after churches are allowed to open again? One survey found things would gradually go back to normal, but that may well not be completely true of churchgoers. While most under 65s, say 95%, will probably continue to go to church, maybe only half, 50%, of 65-and-overs will continue to do so, as the other half find the comfort, ease, and no necessity to travel, strong reasons for staying at home to participate electronically.

Like many countries in the world, Australia conducts regular censuses of its population. Unlike many countries, however, Australia holds them every five years (instead of ten, like the UK).

This is very useful for identifying trends in the data. Like many countries, Australia includes a question asking for a person’s religion, but unlike many other countries the question is framed to ask for the respondent’s specific denomination or other religious affiliation.

Future trends

Eastern Europeans migrating to the UK in the 21st century have had more religious impact than we often realise.

Take the Poles for instance, who have come to the UK in hundreds of thousands over the last ten or 15 years, encouraged by the EU agreement that borders can be crossed by those from any member country.