Decline, purification – or slow-burn revival?

Three of Sunderland’s Methodist church buildings went up for sale this week. I’ve watched their congregations decline steadily over the years and I’m amazed it took the faithful little remnants so long to throw in the towel.

Churches are closing everywhere, not just in the north of England. A recent edition of Christianity asked 12 Christians, mostly leaders, and some young people, a deceptively simple question: ‘How do we stop the decline?’ The answers were thoughtful and full of insight, but I wondered if they had been asked the right question.

John Hayward is a Christian and a mathematician who has been modelling church growth for a couple of decades. Using published attendance figures from several denominations he gives us a more detailed picture of what is happening. Here’s a summary: denominations founded before 1900 are almost all in steep decline. Indeed, he plots their probable extinction dates, Church of Scotland by 2040, Church of England and Roman Catholics by 2060. Of course, this will not happen because remnant congregations are very resilient – like my Methodist friends here in Sunderland. A faithful few can hold out for decades; nevertheless, the picture is bleak.