Decline, purification – or slow-burn revival?

Three of Sunderland’s Methodist church buildings went up for sale this week. I’ve watched their congregations decline steadily over the years and I’m amazed it took the faithful little remnants so long to throw in the towel.

Churches are closing everywhere, not just in the north of England. A recent edition of Christianity asked 12 Christians, mostly leaders, and some young people, a deceptively simple question: ‘How do we stop the decline?’ The answers were thoughtful and full of insight, but I wondered if they had been asked the right question.

John Hayward is a Christian and a mathematician who has been modelling church growth for a couple of decades. Using published attendance figures from several denominations he gives us a more detailed picture of what is happening. Here’s a summary: denominations founded before 1900 are almost all in steep decline. Indeed, he plots their probable extinction dates, Church of Scotland by 2040, Church of England and Roman Catholics by 2060. Of course, this will not happen because remnant congregations are very resilient – like my Methodist friends here in Sunderland. A faithful few can hold out for decades; nevertheless, the picture is bleak.

Well, not entirely, because denominations and church groups founded after 1900, New Frontiers, the Fellowship of Independent Evangelical Churches (FIEC) and Vineyard among them, are growing. You may remember the R number – the rate at which Covid-19 would spread. Hayward uses the R number as a measure of the likelihood church members would pass on their ‘good infection’ (faith) to others. Pre-1900 denominations have an R number of less than one – they are dying out. Post-1900 groups are growing, because their R number is slightly greater than one. In other words, they are infectious.

But hold on a minute. This is not entirely new growth. In the mid-1990s a number of Methodist churches in County Durham closed down. All the brave people who had kept those churches going joined other fellowships – mostly evangelical ones – and our church grew dramatically as a result. Transfer growth is part of your church’s R number, so we shouldn’t be too pleased with ourselves.

Yet new growth has been happening, in some remarkable ways. Here are three that I’ve observed personally.

First, running Alpha and Christianity Explored courses through the late-1990s and noughties led to significant growth in our church. Ten to 20 years later there has been some falling away, but many of those new Christians are still around and contributing to the life of their fellowship.

Then there is the wave of immigration from countries like Iran that has added to our churches. Young, spiritually minded people who are utterly disillusioned with Islam are finding faith in Christ. It is an astonishing phenomenon.

Third, there is social action. Churches supporting people through food banks and drop-in cafés of various kinds have seen growth. Some friends of mine planted a new church completely by accident during lockdown. They saw the isolation and loneliness of people in their community and decided to act. Our council helped us to run a mental health support group during those times when churches were not allowed to meet. When lockdown ended, one of the team said: ‘Do you fancy coming next week and we’ll do some worship instead?’ They all did. A year later there have been genuine conversions, wonderfully changed lives, and liberation from addictions. And nobody planned it, it just happened!

I’m hearing stories like this from all over the UK, so my friends are not unique. The church is not declining, most of the real ones are thriving. So maybe we should be asking this question instead: ‘Is the church declining, or being purified, and are we witnessing a low-intensity, slow-burn revival?’

Discuss!